Lucent Technologies CentreVu Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 Manual

							  Preface CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
Related DocumentsP-3
Related Documents0
There are many documents that can help you use the CentreVu CMS 
software to its maximum capability. The most important ones are listed 
below.
CentreVu CMS 
Publications
0
The following documents, relevant to CentreVu CMS, have also been 
published:
lCentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 
Administration (
585-215-820)
lCentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 Real-
Time and Historical Reports (
585-215-821)
lCentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 Custom 
Reports (
585-215-822)
lCentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 
Change Description (
585-215-823)
lCentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 
External Call History Interface (
585-215-824)
lCentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 
Upgrades and Migration (
585-215-826)
lCentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 
Sun®SPARCserver™  Computers Installation and Maintenance
(
585-215-827)
lCentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 
Sun®SPARCserver™ Computers Connectivity Diagram
(
585-215-828)
lCentreVu™ Call Management System Release 3 Version 5 
Documentation CD-ROM (585-215-891). 
						

							  Preface CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
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CentreVu 
Supervisor 
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The following documents, relevant to CentreVu Supervisor, have also 
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lLucent Technologies CentreVu™ Supervisor Version 5 User Guide 
(
585-215-829)
lLucent Technologies CentreVu™ Supervisor Version 5 Installation 
and Getting Started (
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lLucent Technologies CentreVu™ Supervisor Version 5 Report 
Designer (
585-215-831)
lLucent Technologies CentreVu™ Supervisor and Report Designer 
Version 5 Change Description 
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Other Useful 
Publications
0
At times you may need to reference other documents. You need to know 
where the documentation that was sent with the following is kept:
lSwitch
lTerminals
lPrinters
lUNIX* system of Solaris† system.
*UNIX is a registered trademark in the United States and other countries, licensed exclusively through X/Open 
Corporation.
†Solaris is a registered trademark of Sun Microsystems. 
						

							  Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
What Is Forecasting?1-1
1 Introduction
What Is Forecasting?1
Forecasting is the method used to estimate, calculate, or predict the staffing 
and capacity for specified time periods in the future. With forecasting, you 
can predict the following:
lNumber of calls that you could receive during a specified time period
lNumber of agents that you will need to handle a specified volume of 
calls (for example, you can vary the input parameters for agent 
occupancy, average speed of answer, average agent service time, and 
service level to predict different needs for your call center)
lNumber of trunks that you will need
lTrunk performance.
For example, with forecasting you can look at your call volume for the last 
four Mondays to predict your call volume for the next Monday. Then, using 
your assigned objectives, you can show the number of agents and trunks 
that are required during each intrahour interval next Monday.
NoteBefore you begin using the Forecast subsystem or reading this 
document, see the “Glossary” at the end of this document for the 
meaning of forecasting terms. 
						

							  Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
Purpose of Forecast Subsystem1-2
Purpose of Forecast Subsystem1
Use the Forecast subsystem to do the following:
lProvide you with the estimated number of agents and the number of 
trunks required for each intrahour interval.
lSet objectives for Automatic Call Distribution (ACD) activities 
involving agents, split(s)/skill(s), and trunk/trunk groups for which 
you want to get forecasting information about upcoming dates or 
time periods. You do this using the Forecast Administration 
windows.
lGenerate reports using historical data that predict call volume and 
agent requirements for:
— Today (Current Day report)
— Any day up to 35 days in the future (Longterm report) 
— A given profit margin plus how many calls you can expect for a 
split/skill, and how many agents you will need to handle those 
calls for any day up to 35 days in the future (Financial report) 
— The remaining part of the current day (Intraday report)
— A special day, for example, a holiday or a special promotion 
day (Special Days report).
Other reports also provide information about agent positions 
required, trunks required, and trunk performance. You do this using 
the Forecast Report windows.
lPredict the staffing requirements of your call center in hypothetical 
situations.
lIncrease profits by predicting when to reduce surplus labor.
lGenerate reports that justify increased staffing based on objectives 
and predicted call volume.
lPerform careful scheduling and planning to optimize productivity.
lEstimate how many calls a given number of agents can handle per 
intrahour interval. 
						

							  Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
Types of Forecasting1-3
lEstimate how many calls can be carried by a given number of trunks 
per intrahour interval.
lEstimate a margin for predicting the difference between call revenue 
and call costs for each intrahour interval.
lGather forecast calls carried information for each intrahour interval 
in Special Day reports.
Types of Forecasting1
The Forecast subsystem allows you to set up the desired report 
prerequisites through Administration windows. After you complete the 
setup procedures, you can run various forecast reports. You can either 
generate reports based on historical data, or you can generate reports for 
hypothetical situations.
Forecast reports fall into three basic categories:
lCall Volume/Agent (see Chapter 3, “Call volume/Agents Forecast 
Reports”)
lRequirement (see Chapter 4, “Requirement Forecast Reports”)
lTrunk Performance (see Chapter 5, “Trunk Performance Report”).
NoteForecasting is a separately purchased feature of CentreVu 
CMS. If you have not purchased Forecasting, the Forecast 
MainMenu option does not appear. If you wish to purchase 
Forecasting, call your Lucent Technologies account executive. 
						

							  Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts1-4
Getting Started with Forecasts1
Before you start using the Forecast subsystem, you must do the 
following:
1. Read this chapter before you start.
2. Determine the type of forecasting you want to use.
3. Complete the start-up tasks for Administration.
4. Select the report from the menu options.
5. Determine which method (algorithm) you want to use.
6. Fill in the required report data entry fields.
7. Run the report.
Controlling 
Forecast Results
1
You can control the types of prediction results you receive in forecasting 
depending on how you enter information in the windows or which method 
of forecasting you select. You can usually expect to do some additional 
adjustments to your initial forecasts to get the results you desire.
The following variables can control the prediction results:
lHistorical data that the system retrieves
lDate(s) that you enter
lDays (or Data Points) that you select
lTrending patterns in the data the system retrieves
lTrending method of forecasting that you use
lInterval time that you select
lObjectives that you can enter or that vary.
Using Forecast 
Reports
1
To assist you in using forecast reports, the following chapters provide you 
with information for producing reports:
l“Using Call Volume/Agents Forecast Reports” (see Chapter 3)
l“Using Requirement Reports” (see Chapter 4)
l“Using the Trunk Performance Report” (see Chapter 5). 
						

							  Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts1-5
Data Used for 
Split/Skill 
Forecasts
1
To forecast calls carried to a split/skill, CentreVuCMS uses historical 
intrahour interval data. Specifically, 
CentreVuCMS uses the sum of ACD 
and abandoned calls that the split/skill received in each interval. This sum 
of ACD and abandoned calls is called the Number of calls 
carried.
Data Points1The number of calls carried normally comes from the intrahour intervals 
from 4 specific days in the past. These 4 days that supply input data are 
called data points. The data points may be either 1 day apart or 1 week 
apart:
lOne-day-apart data points are always the 4 sequential days 
immediately preceding the current day. Look at the example in 
Figure 1-1
. If the current day is Monday, May 5, the data points are 
May 1, 2, 3, and 4.
.
Figure 1-1:  Sample Data Points—One Day Apart
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= today= data points = forecast day
NoteOne-day-apart data points should not be used if they include 
days that had no activity. For example, in Figure 1-1
, two of 
the data points fall on Saturday and Sunday. If the call center 
is normally closed on weekends, a forecast with 1-day-apart 
data points would be skewed. 
						

							  Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts1-6
lOne-week-apart data points are days in each of the preceding 4 
weeks and are the same day of the week as the forecasted day. 
Look at the example in Figure 1-2
. If the forecasted day is Thursday, 
June 5, and today is Wednesday, May 28, the data points would be 
the Thursdays on May 1, 18, 15, and 22.
Figure 1-2:  Sample Data Points—One Week Apart
For some types of split/skill forecasts, you specify at run time which type 
of data points 
CentreVuCMS should use. For the Current Day and 
Intraday forecasts, 
CentreVuCMS automatically uses 1-week-apart data 
points.  
Split/Skill Forecast 
Methods
1
CentreVuCMS uses the data from the data points in different ways, 
depending on which of the four forecast methods you select. The four 
available forecast methods are as follows:
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= today= data points = forecast day
NoteThe Special Day Forecast uses data from only the last 
occurrence of a special day, not from data points.
No Trending
CentreVuCMS finds the average number of 
calls, per interval, in the data points.
Current Trending
CentreVuCMS finds the trend of the number of 
calls in the data points. Thus, if the number of 
calls in the most recent data points indicates 
that the number of calls is going down, the 
calls forecasted will be lower than they would 
have been forecasted with the “no trending” 
method.  
						

							  Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts1-7
Expected CallsYou enter the number of calls you expect for 
the forecasted day. 
CentreVuCMS checks the 
data points to find the percentage of historical 
calls that arrived in each intrahour interval. 
CentreVuCMS then distributes your expected 
calls among the forecast days intervals using 
those same percentages.
Seasonal Trending
CentreVuCMS finds the average number of 
calls per interval in the current data points. 
Based on an earlier seasonal trend base date 
(a seasonal trend base date is a date in the 
past that you think is similar to the current day), 
CentreVuCMS also finds the average number 
of calls per day in a parallel set of data points 
(these averages use the data weights). 
CentreVuCMS then scales up or down the 
average found in the current data points 
according to the ratio of the seasonal trend 
base date to the seasonal average. Thus, with 
seasonal trending, 
CentreVuCMS uses data 
for a seasonal set of data points to determine 
the data in the current set of data points.
Look at the example in Figure 1-3
. Since data 
points for today, May 28, are 1 week apart, 
when you select a seasonal trend base date of 
1 year (52 weeks) ago, 
CentreVuCMS 
automatically uses data points for last year 
from the base date that are also 1 week apart.  
						

							  Introduction CentreVu CMS R3V5 Forecast  585-215-825
Getting Started with Forecasts1-8
Figure 1-3:  Sample Data Points—Seasonal Trending
For most split/skill forecasts, you must select the forecast method(s) at 
the time you run the report. However, for the Current Day and Intraday 
forecasts, you assign the forecast method in the Current Day 
Configuration window (see Chapter 2, “Forecast Administration— 
Current Day Configuration Administration”). The Special Day Forecast 
uses only Expected Calls and a variation of No Trending.
If you want a trend based on historical data, you must define adequate 
storage. See Chapter 2, “Forecast Administration—Data Storage 
Allocation Administration.”
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= seasonal data points= season day
1
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= today= data points = forecast day
31
NoteFor a detailed explanation of these forecast methods, see “How 
the Forecast System Generates Data” in Chapter 6
.